GOTM9 - Tables of Combat Results from the Edo Battles

GOTM9 Index



The Japan Campaign
- Introduction
- Planning
- Military orders
- Initial engagements
- Far off landing
- Coastal thrust
- Main advance
- Inland sea
- Consolidate the opening
- Secure the horses
- Western port
- Moving inland
- Battle before Edo
- Combat tables
- Yokohama and Nara
- Osaka
- Kyoto’s fate
- The gambit
- The battle
- Combat tables
- Mopping up


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There are four separate tables containing the actual combat results leading up to the capture of the Japanese city of Edo.

Tokugawa’s initial counterattack in 260 AD
The “Warrior Flutter” in 270 AD
Tokugawa’s 2nd Major counterattack in 280 AD
The Capture of Edo in 290 AD

The Capture of Edo in 290 AD
This combat table only includes the data associated with the direct attacks on units defending the town of Edo and none of the ancillary combat events in the surrounding terrain.

 

Japanese
Health

Egyptian
Attacker

Stroke
Count

Defender
Wins

Attacker
Wins

Retreat
Choice

Actual
Retreat

1st Sword stroke 1

3 / 4

4 / 5

1

 

1

 

 

1st Sword stroke 2

2 / 4

4 / 5

2

 

2

 

 

1st Sword stroke 3

1 / 4

4 / 5

3

 

3

 

 

1st Sword stroke 4

0

4 / 5

4

 

4

 

 

great leader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st Chariot stroke 1

3 / 3

4 / 5

5

1

 

 

 

1st Chariot stroke 2

2 / 3

4 / 5

6

 

5

 

 

1st Chariot stroke 3

1 / 3

4 / 5

7

 

6

 

 

1st Chariot stroke 4

1 / 3

3 / 5

8

2

 

 

 

1st Chariot stroke 5

1 / 3

2 / 5

9

3

 

 

 

1st Chariot stroke 6

0

2 / 5

10

 

7

 

 

2nd Chariot stroke 1

2 / 3

3 / 3

11

 

8

 

 

2nd Chariot stroke 2

2 / 3

2 / 3

12

4

 

 

 

2nd Chariot stroke 3

1 / 3

2 / 3

13

 

9

 

 

2nd Chariot stroke 4

1 / 3

1 / 3

14

5

 

 

 

coin toss - attack

0

2 / 3

15

 

10

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total results

 

 

 

33.3%

67.7%

 

 

expected results

 

 

 

49.8%

50.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sword Combat Only

 

 

 

0

4

 

 

actual sword results

 

 

 

0%

100%

 

 

expect sword results

 

 

 

47.8%

52.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chariot Combat Only

 

 

 

5

6

 

 

actual chariot results

 

 

 

45.4%

54.6%

 

 

expect chariot results

 

 

 

48.6%

53.4%

 

 

Except for the really favorable result with the initial elite swordsman, the combat outcomes for this battle were about what should have been expected from the statistical process. The swordsman victory was just a lucky string of stroke victories that should be taken in the context that two battles had been fought during the previous turn (280 AD) involving swordsman against spearmen and in both of these battles, swordsmen were lost with an overall stroke exchange of  9 out of 14 strokes going to the spearmen defenders. Taken together with this one combat event in 290 AD, the overall win rate for the swordsmen was 9 out 18 strokes and that is right in line with the expected 52.2% win rate.


The next major sequence of moves was –

The interlude following the fall of Edo (Yokohama and Nara)

or

Closing the noose around Kyoto (the fall of Osaka)

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